Understanding the impact of tariffs

The tariff announcements by the US administration at the beginning of April created a wide range of impacts across many industry sectors. However, the 90-day pause announced shortly after also suggests an intent by the US administration to negotiate, as well as providing a planning window for businesses to potentially review their dependency on key markets such as China.

The impact of higher import tariffs in the US varies across industries, and is dependent on a number of factors including their overall reliance on tariffed raw materials, price elasticity, industry growth, margin health, and ready availability of alternative sources.

The current proposed tariff strategy encompasses two distinct objectives. The first – a 10% universal tariff – aims to stimulate domestic manufacturing. The second – which focuses on more extensive reciprocal tariffs – is intended by the US Administration to serve as a strategic tool to incentivize trade negotiations. Together, these measures seek to address imbalances in existing tariff structures according to the US Administration, although these purported imbalances have been challenged by existing US trade markets from around the world.

The stark reality is that industries that rely heavily on tariffed imports, have limited flexibility to adjust prices, and are already under financial strain leading to further pressure on both growth and profit margins. In contrast, sectors that have already adapted to alternative sourcing in response to past trade policies and have strong cost management strategies are likely to face minimal disruption.

The impact of tariffs on the global services market

Tariffs on global services appear unlikely, especially for the tech services industry, which may largely escape direct impact.

However, tariffs are expected to negatively impact demand for services across most of the affected industries, driven by cuts in discretionary spending and revenue compression in non-discretionary areas due to broader economic strain.

The degree of the impact will vary by the industry of services buyers.

Learn more about the tariff impacts on industries: 

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Anticipated commercial impacts to IT service provider pricing

Companies are likely to face budget constraints due to reduced demand and rising costs, which could limit overall IT spending. Pricing for standard IT service provider skills may decline. However, demand for advanced IT service provider capabilities may grow as firms pursue tech-driven cost reduction. Customer experience management may also see increased investment to help retain customers despite higher prices.

 

Two-phase impact on the global services market

The impact of tariffs is expected to unfold in two phases.

In the near term:

Non-essential and discretionary spending is likely to decline. This includes reduced spending on outsourcing, consulting, and other professional services.

In the medium term:

Businesses are likely to adapt through cost optimization, diversifying suppliers, and increasing automation. These changes could ultimately create new growth opportunities for services providers.

The forecast for global services: three scenarios and associated growth

Everest Group foresees three plausible scenarios for service provider market impact in 2025 after reciprocal tariffs are imposed.

We also anticipate that reciprocal tariffs will pose a significant barrier to growth in the global services market, potentially preventing meaningful recovery from an already weak 2024. 

How Everest Group can help

At Everest Group, our analysts are closely tracking how global tech and services markets are responding to the impact of tariffs, and our evolving outlooks will be shared with members.

Beyond our membership content, analysts are available to help on specific projects or on a workshop basis.

  • Buyers of services

    If you are a buyer of IT and outsourcing services, we can help you:

    • Assess the need to update outsourcing (IT/BPO/tech) and workforce playbooks
    • Model impacts to services pricing for various scenarios and levers to mitigate cost increases
    • Shift service provider portfolios to mitigate impacts
  • Service providers

    If you are an IT or outsourcing service provider, we can help you:

    • Develop future roadmaps for growth opportunities and competitive positioning across geographies and industry verticals
    • Navigate rapidly evolving market share benchmarking and analysis to keep you ahead of the market dynamics and the competition
    • Develop growth playbooks for specific portfolios

Navigate market disruptions confidently

Our analysts are closely monitoring how global tech and services markets are responding to the impact of tariffs. Connect with us for forward looking planning.

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